The International Energy Agency, or IEA, delivered a stark message on Wednesday, stating that keeping global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius is now “out of reach.” This announcement marks a major turning point, coming a decade after the Paris Agreement established that target as the world’s main climate objective. The IEA’s World Energy Outlook report, released during the COP30 climate talks in Belém, Brazil, predicts that the world’s ongoing reliance on fossil fuels will drive temperatures to dangerous new heights, even as the installation of renewable energy sources hits record levels.
This serious warning was supported by the United Nations Environment Programme in its Emissions Gap Report 2025, which was released on November 4. The UN report found that even if every country in the world fully meets its latest climate promises, global temperatures are still on track to rise by 2.3 to 2.5 degrees Celsius this century. Under the policies that are currently in place, the warming could be as high as 2.8 degrees Celsius, with a real possibility of temperatures rising by more than 3 degrees.
Joeri Rogelj, a research director at Imperial College London, told CNN that this year is the first time that, after looking at all available options, they could find no technically possible way to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.
Scientists Predict Catastrophic Consequences
Experts describe a world that has warmed by 2 to 3 degrees as a place of widespread disaster. In such a world, major coastal cities would be at risk of being flooded by rising sea levels, mountain glaciers would almost completely disappear, and the planet’s massive ice sheets would begin to break apart in a significant way. Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at the University of California, described this level of warming as a “catastrophe.”
During a media briefing last week, Swain explained that a world that is 3 degrees warmer would see sea levels rise much higher than they are today. This would threaten the existence of huge global cities that are currently just a few feet above sea level. The planet has already warmed by about 1.4 degrees Celsius, and the year 2025 is on pace to be either the second or third warmest year ever recorded.
Recent research also warns that warming beyond the 2-degree mark could set off irreversible climate tipping points. Even at today’s temperatures, the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets, as well as tropical coral reefs and permafrost regions, are already showing signs of becoming unstable.
Slow Progress at the COP30 Climate Summit
These alarming findings are being released as representatives from nearly 200 countries meet in Belém for the COP30 climate summit, which will continue until November 21. The progress on new climate commitments has been slow. Only 60 of the countries that signed the Paris Agreement submitted new climate pledges by the September deadline. These countries represent 63% of the world’s total emissions.
The UN report also noted that the second withdrawal of the United States from the Paris Agreement will make the global emissions gap even larger, adding an extra 2 gigatons of CO2 equivalent to the atmosphere.
Kim Cobb, a climate researcher at Brown University, said that while there has been good progress in replacing fossil fuels with renewable energy, it is not a time to celebrate. She cautioned that we cannot afford to relax and assume that we are safe from the worst impacts of climate change. The new reports make it clear that much more urgent action is needed from all countries to avoid a future with dangerously high temperatures.
