In 2025, Somalia continues to wage an intense campaign against Al-Shabaab, one of the most resilient militant groups in East Africa. Despite major security gains in previous years, the group remains active across several southern and central regions, using asymmetric tactics to challenge government control and disrupt civilian life.

Government Strategy and Operations

President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s administration launched the “Operation Black Lion II” early this year, supported by the Somali National Army (SNA), regional forces, and international partners. The campaign focuses on reclaiming rural strongholds in Middle Shabelle and Hiiraan while cutting off Al-Shabaab’s financing networks, which rely heavily on illicit taxation and smuggling.

Role of the African Union

The African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) continues to provide logistical and operational support, though the mission is preparing for a phased withdrawal by late 2025. Somali officials insist that national forces are increasingly capable of maintaining stability, thanks to new training programs and better coordination with intelligence agencies.

Civilian Impact

While security operations have reduced militant control in many areas, civilians still face hardships, including displacement and limited humanitarian access. According to the UN, over 500,000 people were temporarily displaced by fighting during the first half of 2025.

International Cooperation

The U.S., Turkey, and Qatar have provided crucial training and drone surveillance support. Analysts note that Somalia’s counterterror strategy has become more data-driven and regionally coordinated, improving long-term prospects for peace.

Outlook

Experts believe 2025 could mark a turning point in the fight against Al-Shabaab—if the government sustains its current momentum and strengthens community engagement to prevent extremist recruitment.